Tropical Storm Cristobal spaghetti models: When will storm hit Louisiana?

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Tropical Storm Cristobal is currently tearing across eastern Mexico and it is expected to emerge into the Gulf of Mexico late on Friday. The storm’s probability of making landfall in the US as a tropical storm remains likely according to WeatherTiger’s chief meteorologist. But when exactly is Cristobal due to hit Louisiana?

Tropical Storm Cristobal has battered Mexico with damaging and deadly flooding across portions of Mexico and Central America.

The storm is expected to produce additional extreme rainfall amounts through the end of the week.

The heaviest rainfall is anticipated across southern Mexico and portions of the Yucatan Peninsula, while also extending along the Pacific coast from Chiapas to Guatemala and El Salvador.

Residents across these regions have been warned the rainfall could produce widespread life-threatening flash floods and mudslides.


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According to the most recent report from the NOAA’s National Hurricane Center issued at 10am CDT (4pm BST) has weakened to a depression but is continuing to produce heavy rains and life-threatening flooding.

The storm was located near longitude 17.6 north and latitude 91.0 west which is around 160 miles south-southwest of Campeche, Mexico.

Cristobal was moving at three mph and packing winds of 35mph.

The NHC’s report reads: “A turn toward the east and northeast is expected later today, and a subsequent northward motion should occur through Sunday.

“On the forecast track, the centre will move over the land mass of extreme northwestern Guatemala and eastern Mexico today and tonight.

“The centre is forecast to move back over the southern Gulf of Mexico Friday or Friday night, over the central Gulf of Mexico on Saturday, and approach the northern Gulf of Mexico coast Sunday and Sunday night.”

Weather forecasters forecast heavy rainfall will hit parts of Mexico through Saturday.

The Mexican states of Campeche, Quintana Roo, Tabasco, and Yucatan are likely to see between six and 12 inches, with isolated regions getting totals of 25 inches.

In addition, Veracruz and Oaxaca in Mexico are due to receive between five and 10 inches of rainfall.

Southern Guatemala and parts of Chiapas will see an additional 15 to 20 inches, with some regions getting up to 35 inches.

In El Salvador, an additional 10 to 15 inches is expected, whereas in Belize and Honduras three to six inches is anticipated with isolated areas getting up to 10 inches.

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Cristobal is forecast to emerge again over the southern Gulf of Mexico on Friday and move northward over the central and northern Gulf of Mexico over the coming weekend.

There is a risk of tropical-storm-force winds this weekend from Louisiana to the western Florida Panhandle.

In addition, there is a risk of dangerous storm surge from Louisiana to the Florida Big Bend.

These hazards, along with heavy rainfall, will arrive well in advance of and extend well east of the tropical storm’s centre.

Tropical storm and storm surge watches could be issued on Thursday night or on Friday.

According to spaghetti models, the storm is forecast to steadily track towards the US coast in Louisana in the coming days.

On Sunday at 7am CDT (1pm BST), the storm is expected to be located at latitude 26.7 north, longitude 90.6 west which is over water.

However, by Monday at 7am CDT (1pm BST), Cristobal is expected to be located inland in Louisana packing winds of 40mph.

The storm is expected to continue to track northwards arriving in Arizona on Tuesday with winds reaching 30mph.

Accuweather’s hurricane expert Dan Kottlowski said: “There is a small chance the system will break up over southern Mexico late this week, but the more likely scenario is for the storm to survive, move back out over the warm waters of the central Gulf of Mexico, reorganize, strengthen and turn northward toward the U.S. from Friday night to Sunday night.

“We’ve expected Cristobal to weaken to a tropical depression for a time over Mexico on Thursday.

He added the forward motion of Cristobal is expected to be slow at first but the system is likely to gain in speed later this weekend.

Mr Kottlowski said: “Provided Cristobal does not get beaten down too much by interaction with Mexico, there is a chance the storm strengthens to a hurricane over the central Gulf of Mexico later this weekend, prior to reaching the US.”

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