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This year has been one of records: global boiling heat, extreme weather events and now, the El Nino could be one of the strongest ever.<\/p>\n
Much of the country is drying out and bushfires are starting to impact Queensland and NSW. This trend will likely continue over the coming summer, with fire agencies doing what they can to prepare.<\/p>\n
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This year\u2019s El Nino event may be one of the strongest on record.<\/span>Credit: <\/span>Alex Ellinghausen<\/cite><\/p>\n Despite one of the most devastating bushfire events on record just three years ago, much of the country remains unburnt. But after three years of heavy rain driven by La Nina events, strong grass growth has occurred across much of the country, which will increase fire risks.<\/p>\n The Bureau of Meteorology\u2019s three-month forecast suggests maximum temperatures during December and February will be unusually high for much of the country, while rainfall is predicted to be below average.<\/p>\n Climate experts study several factors to determine how strong an El Nino will be, including the sea surface temperatures in the central Pacific Ocean. This is known as the 3.4 Nino index.<\/p>\n This index is now about 1.5 degrees warmer than average and is likely to continue warming in the coming weeks. Values of 0.8 degrees warmer than average are typical during El Nino years.<\/p>\n Historically, the 3.4 Nino index has peaked at 2.6 and 2.4 degrees warmer than average in 2015 and 1997, respectively. A strong El Nino event can occur when the 3.4 index peaks above 2 degrees – which this year\u2019s event is expected to do in December and January.<\/p>\n However, meteorology agencies monitor a variety of criteria to determine if an El Nino is \u201cstrong\u201d, including rainfall and temperature. Just because the 3.4 index swings above 2 degrees, it may not be enough to classify it as a \u201cstrong\u201d El Nino.<\/p>\n The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) predicts that this year\u2019s El Nino has a moderate chance of being \u201chistorically strong\u201d.<\/p>\n \u201cStronger El Nino events increase the likelihood of El Nino-related climate anomalies, but do not necessarily equate to strong impacts,\u201d the November update from the US agency said.<\/p>\n During El Nino years, warm water gathers off the coast of South America and throughout the central Pacific.<\/p>\n The ocean waters are colder off Australia and less moisture rises into the atmosphere, leading to lower-than-average rainfall and possible drought.<\/p>\n The El Nino is expected to linger until autumn 2024, and it will be some time before meteorologists can predict what the coming months hold.<\/p>\n Already, this year will probably be the hottest in the past 100,000 years as climate scientists warn global temperatures have soared to such an extent that Earth has entered uncharted territory. June, July, August and September were the warmest respective months since records began, with October likely to follow.<\/p>\n But forecasting the weather is getting tricker as our climate warms. This is because warmer weather is impacting the baseline data meteorologists use when measuring El Nino and La Nina events.<\/p>\n Australia\u2019s climate has warmed by 1.48 degrees since national records began in 1910. And this can make forecasting weather more tricky. <\/p>\nA year of records<\/h3>\n