Can Rishi stop the Tories imploding over Rwanda in the New Year? PM faces final PMQs of the year with factions already gearing up for fresh battle over flagship law – with fears the party is plunging into ‘Brexit all over again’
Rishi Sunak faces the final PMQs of the year today after he dramatically saw off a Tory mutiny on his Rwanda plan – for the moment.
The premier will aim to send his troops in to the Christmas break on a positive note after yesterday’s extraordinary arm-twisting and coaxing.
The emergency legislation designed to get deportation flights going cleared its first Commons hurdle by 313 votes to 269 – a majority of 44.
However, dozens of MPs abstained – with grim threats from both the wings of the party to crash the Bill when it returns to Parliament in January.
Rebels on the Tory Right say the will ‘kill’ the new laws unless Mr Sunak toughens them up, while there are complaints from the One Nation faction that it already goes too far in watering down international human right rules.
MPs have voiced alarm that the situation is ‘Brexit all over again’ with the ‘same arguments, the same groups, the same people leading them’.
Those tensions ended the premierships of David Cameron and Theresa May, and only finally eased thanks to Boris Johnson’s 2019 election landslide.
But in a round of interviews this morning James Cleverly insisted Conservatives are ‘united’ in a desire to get the legislation right.
He risked fuelling tensions with right-wingers by suggesting they would be harming their own interests by blocking the Bill.
In a round of interviews this morning Home Secretary James Cleverly insisted Conservatives are ‘united’ in a desire to get the legislation right
A file picture of migrants crossing the Channel on a small boat
‘We of course are more than willing to listen to good faith amendments that are designed to make the Bill better, keep it within the bounds of international law, keep it in a state that the Rwandans are happy to work with,’ he said.
Put to him that ‘a lot of Tories’ do not want the legislation to work, he told Sky News: ‘No, this is absolutely wrong. The Conservative Party is united on the desire to get this right and to stop the boats.
‘The Labour Party’s position is to try and wreck it.’
Despite a day of sabre-rattling, no Tories voted against the legislation last night.
Some 29 deliberately sat out the division, including Suella Braverman and former immigration minister Robert Jenrick. Several of those who abstained seem to object to the harshness of the measures rather than them being too weak.
It would have needed around 29 Tories voting against or 57 abstentions to overturn the government majority.
In reality the figure would have had to be higher as five independents supported the party line. They included ex-Tory Peter Bone, who has just returned from being suspended from the House.
Rishi Sunak seemed to be breathing a sigh of relief as he was driven away from Parliament tonight
The government had a relatively comfortable margin of 44 in the second reading vote
The emergency legislation intended to get Rwanda deportation flights up and running passed its first hurdle in the Commons by 313 to 269 – a majority of 44
Posting on social media after the announcement, Mr Sunak said he can ‘deliver’ on his vow to Stop the Boats
Tory MPs sitting on the top left of the picture as the division took place appeared to be abstaining
A defeat on the totemic policy could well have been terminal for Mr Sunak – although he still faces a massive test to push the legislation through the rest of the Parliamentary process.
One rebel on the Tory Right said: ‘This Bill has been allowed to live another day. But without amendments, it will be killed next month. It’s now up to the Government to decide what it wants to do.’
Who were the Tory abstentions?
An analysis of the Commons voting list reveals there were 29 likely Tory abstentions on the Second Reading of the Rwanda Bill.
They were:
Sir Jake Berry
Suella Braverman
Sir Bill Cash
Miriam Cates
Rehman Chishti
Simon Clarke
Theo Clarke
Sarah Dines
Richard Drax
Sir James Duddridge
Tobias Ellwood
Natalie Elphicke
Mark Francois
Chris Green
Jonathan Gullis
Sir John Hayes
Adam Holloway
Tom Hunt
Robert Jenrick
Dr Caroline Johnson
David Jones
Danny Kruger
Marco Longhi
Craig Mackinlay
Stephen McPartland
Robin Millar
Jill Mortimer
Jesse Norman
Sir John Redwood
Any attempt to harden the legislation – even if Mr Sunak were minded to do so – would provoke howls of protest from the One Nation wing of the party.
Moderates have already been voicing disquiet at the measures to loosen human rights rules.
Ex-Cabinet minister Damian Green told Sky News that the law ‘goes right to the edge of what is acceptable’
He pointed out that the government had ‘quite a big win’, adding there was ‘less opposition than people were expecting’.
Mr Sunak was seen hugging chief whip Simon Hart in the Commons just seconds after the result was declared.
Posting on social media after the announcement, Mr Sunak said: ‘The British people should decide who gets to come to this country – not criminal gangs or foreign courts.
‘That’s what this Bill delivers. We will now work to make it law so that we can get flights going to Rwanda and stop the boats.’
Before the vote, Mark Francois, chair of the right-wing ERG bloc, said: ‘We have decided collectively that we cannot support the Bill tonight because of its many omissions.’
He added that Sir Bill Cash, the senior Conservative backbencher, was expected to come forward with proposals to toughen the Bill in the coming weeks.
‘The Prime Minister has been telling colleagues today he is prepared to entertain tightening the Bill,’ Mr Francois added.
‘We very much hope… those amendments may yet be accepted. If they are not and the Bill remains unamended again, collectively, we agreed to reserve the right to vote against it at Third Reading.’
Hardliners were incensed by the government’s tactics during a frantic day of coaxing and strong-arming.
An hour-long breakfast summit at No10 – where potential rebels including Lee Anderson, the Conservative deputy chairman, Miriam Cates and Danny Kruger were served bacon rolls – failed to break the deadlock.
In a sign of alarm among Tory whips, Net Zero minister Graham Stuart was dragged back from the COP28 summit in Abu Dhabi to vote, before heading back to the Middle East in a near-7,000 mile round trip.
MPs on one Commons committee were ordered to cancel a Caribbean visit in order to take part in the showdown.
One senior right-winger told MailOnline that whips had ‘wound people up’ by being ‘on transmit rather than receive’.
Despite voting to support the Bill, former Tory leader Iain Duncan Smith said he could always rescind his backing at a later date.
He said: ‘We always reserve the right to do what we have to do when we think it doesn’t work, my personal view is I want to see the Government listen and engage.
‘Right now this was a very difficult Bill to get through, very contentious, it was the toughest bit of legislation concerning people’s rights, in terms of asylum seekers, that we’ve seen, and that’s because the crisis is big and many people are dying in the channel.
‘It’s happening all over Europe – France is in defiance of the European court, sending people back.
‘Denmark passed legislation to send people back, Sweden is doing the same, Germany is in turmoil, Italy is talking about defying the court – this is not just the UK.
‘It’s part of the problem that all around Europe we’re facing, so this is the issue here on our island and we have to resolve it, otherwise it creates chaos.’
Mr Jenrick led Tory opposition to the legislation during a bad-tempered Commons debate.
The MP, who plunged the PM into chaos by quitting as immigration minister last week, branded parts of the emergency legislation ‘sophistry’ and warned it will not work.
He said that tougher action is needed because ‘the public are watching’ and will not tolerate failure.
Labour is claiming that the UK is now set to hand the African nation £400million after Home Secretary James Cleverly confirmed another £50million is due next year.
Mark Francois, the chair of the European Research Group, said MPs on the Tory right were withholding support for the Rwanda legislation
Robert Jenrick led Tory attacks on Rishi Sunak’s Rwanda plans today during a bad-tempered Commons debate
The ‘five families’ trying to make Rishi an offer he cannot refuse
The New Conservatives
A right-wing traditionalist group led by evangelical Christians Miriam Cates and Danny Kruger. Its ranks are drawn mainly from MPs first elected in 2019, with a lot of Red Wall politicians including Tory deputy chairman Lee Anderson involved. was only formed in May but has made headlines agitating for a more hardline party that is tough on immigration, pro-traditional families and strong in fighting the culture war. It has called for a hard cap on migrant numbers.
European Research Group
An older Brexiteeer group on the right of the party which came to the fore during the Brexit years under Jacob Rees-Mogg. It played a key role in organising opposition to Theresa May and has continued to be a thorn in the side of the Government when it wants to be. Led now by Mark Francois it has convened a ‘star chamber’ led by veteran eurosceptic Bill cash to run the rule over the Rwanda law.
Common Sense Group
Another informal group on the right led by Suella Braverman ally Sir John Hayes and Sir Edward Leigh. In 2021 it backed a ‘Britain Uncancelled’ campaign with Sir John launching a blistering attack on statue-toppling, politically correct woke warriors, and demanded to know why Whitehall departments granted ‘huge sums of money’ to groups that were ‘entirely hostile to British values of fairness, open-mindedness, mutual respect and reasonableness’.
One Nation Caucus
A group of more than 100 MPs on the moderate wing of the party. It has described leaving the ECHR as a red line for its members. It is said to be unhappy at the law giving ministers unilateral plans to brand Rwanda as ‘safe’ and over-rule human rights laws and may yet refuse to back the new law in Parliament.
Northern Research Group
A group founded by ex-Tory chairman Sir Jake Berry to represent Conservatives in seats in the north of England, many of which switched from Labour for the first time at the last election. Less openly ideological than some of the other groups, but regards immigration as a key issue for its voters.
A Commons defeat would have marked the first time that a Government had failed to get legislation past a first reading since 1986, when Margaret Thatcher wanted to scrap restrictive Sunday trading laws.
The Safety of Rwanda Bill has been drawn up in response to last month’s Supreme Court ruling that sending Channel migrants to the east African state would be unlawful.
The court found that Rwanda’s asylum system was potentially unsafe because there was a risk that migrants could be sent back to their home countries where they might be ill-treated.
Ministers signed a treaty with Rwanda last week stating that migrants sent from the UK will not be deported to their home countries.
The legislation would declare in law that Rwanda is safe, ruling out further court challenges to the principle of the scheme. It also excludes the plan from parts of the Human Rights Act.
But to the dismay of critics, individual migrants will still be able to lodge legal appeals.
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